Siyakwamukela inkathi yokuhlola
Ku-1998, i-Kodak yayinezisebenzi ze-170,000 futhi ithengise i- 85% yazo zonke izithombe zephepha emhlabeni.
Eminyakeni embalwa nje, imodeli yakhe yebhizinisi yabhidlika, yamyisa ekufeni.
Okwenzekile ku-Kodak kuzokwenzeka ezinkampanini eziningi eminyakeni elandelayo ye-10 - futhi abantu abaningi abaqapheli.
Ucabanga ukuthi ku-1998 ukuthi eminyakeni engu-3 kamuva ayengeke athathe izithombe ephepheni futhi?
Kodwa-ke, amakhamera edijithali asungulwa ngo-1975. Njengabo bonke ubuchwepheshe obuchazayo, abedumaza isikhathi eside ngaphambi kokuba aphakame kakhulu futhi abe umkhuba omkhulu eminyakeni embalwa.
Manje kuzodlula nge-Intelligence Intelligence, izimoto zempilo, ezizimele zemoto, imfundo, ukunyathelisa kwe-3D, ezolimo kanye nemisebenzi.
Siyakwamukela ku-Fourth Industrial Revolution!
Isofthiwe izoshintsha izimboni eziningi zendabuko eminyakeni elandelayo ye-5-10.
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I-Uber iyithuluzi lesofthiwe kuphela, ayinayo imoto, futhi manje yinkampani enkulu yamatekisi emhlabeni jikelele. I-Airbnb manje yinkampani enkulu kunazo zonke yehhotela emhlabeni nakuba kungenayo eyakho impahla.
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Intelligence Intelligence: Amakhompiyutha azoba ngcono kakhulu ekuqondeni umhlaba. Kulo nyaka, ikhompyutha ishaya iGood Player engcono kunazo zonke emhlabeni (umdlalo wamaShayina unzima kakhulu kune-chess), iminyaka engu-10 ngaphambili kunalindelekile.
E-USA abameli abasha abasawutholi umsebenzi ngoba nge-IBM Watson, ungathola izeluleko zomthetho (ezindabeni eziyisisekelo) ngemizuzwana, ngokunemba kwe-90% uma kuqhathaniswa nokunemba kwe-70% yabantu. Ngakho uma ufunda umthetho, yimisa ngokushesha. Kuzoba khona abameli abangu-90% abancane esikhathini esizayo
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I-Watson Health isivele isiza abahlengikazi behlonza umdlavuza, ngezikhathi ze-4 ngokunembile kunesihlengikazi somuntu. I-Facebook manje inesofthiwe yokuqaphela engabona ubuso buhle kunabantu. Ku-2030, amakhompiyutha ayoba ngcono kunabantu.
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Izimoto ezizimele: izimoto zokuqala ezizimele zizovela ku-2018. Emhlabeni we-2020, yonke imboni izoqala ukuba nezinkinga. Awufuni ukuba nemoto futhi. Uzobiza imoto ngefoni yakho, izovela lapho ukhona futhi iyokuyisa endaweni oya kuyo. Ngeke udingeke ukuyibeka, uzokhokha kuphela ibanga elihambako futhi uzokwazi ukusebenza ngesikhathi uhamba. Izingane zethu ngeke zidingeke ilayisense yokushayela futhi ngeke zenze imoto. Amadolobha azoshintsha ngoba sizodinga izimoto ezingaphansi kwe-90% -95%. Singakwazi ukuguqula amabhishi okupaka amapaki. Izigidi zabantu ze-1.2 emhlabeni wonke ziyafa minyaka yonke kusukela ezingozini zemoto. Manje sinengozi emakhilomitha angu-100,000 ngamunye; ngezimoto ezizimele ezizoshintsha engozini emakhilomitha ayizigidi ezingu-10. Lokhu kuzosindisa izigidi zabantu ngamunye
ngonyaka
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Izinkampani eziningi zezimoto zingaphumelela. Izinkampani zendabuko zezimoto zisebenzisa indlela yokuziphendukela kwemvelo futhi zenza imoto engcono ngenkathi izinkampani zobuchwepheshe (Tesla, Goole, Apple) zinezindlela zokuguqula nokukhiqiza amakhompyutha ngamasondo. Ngakhuluma nabanjiniyela beVW ne-Audi futhi besaba kakhulu nguTesla.
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Izinkampani zomshuwalense zizoba nezinkinga ezimbi ngoba ngaphandle kwezingozi, umshuwalense uzoba izikhathi ezingu-100 ezishibhile. Imodeli yakho yomshuwalense wemoto izophela.
Ibhizinisi lendawo yokuhlala lizoshintsha. Ngoba uma ungakwazi ukusebenza ngenkathi uhamba, abantu bayodlulela phambili emadolobheni ukuze baphile. '
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Ngeke udinga amagaraji amaningi uma abantu abambalwa banezimoto, ngakho ukuhlala emadolobheni kungaba ngcono ngoba abantu bathanda ukuba nabanye abantu. Lokho ngeke kuguquke.
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Izimoto zikagesi zizobe zivamile kwi-2020. Amadolobha ayoba nomsindo omncane ngoba zonke izimoto zizoba ngogesi. Ugesi luzobe luhlanzekile kakhulu futhi lungabizi: ukukhiqizwa kwamandla we-solar kube yindondo engavamile yokuhlola iminyaka engu-30, kodwa manje nje uyabona umthelela. Ngonyaka odlule, kwafakwa amandla amaningi elanga ngaphezu kwamandla we-fossil. Inani lentengo yelanga liyowela kakhulu kangangokuthi zonke izinkampani zamalahle zizophuma ebhizinisini ku-2025.
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Ngogesi eshibhile kufika amanzi amaningi futhi angabizi ngokusebenzisa ukukhishwa kwemvelo. Cabanga ukuthi kungenzeka kanjani uma wonke umuntu engaba namanzi amaningi ahlanzekile njengoba ayefuna, cishe ngaphandle kwezindleko.
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Impilo: Intengo ye-Tricorder X izokwaziswa kulo nyaka. Kuzoba nezinkampani ezizokwakha idivayisi yezokwelapha (ebizwa nge-Star Trek Tricorder) ehambelana nefoni yakho, engakwazi ukuskena i-retina yakho, izothatha amasampula egazi lakho nokuphefumula kwakho kuwo. Khona-ke i-54 izohlaziya izimpawu zemvelo ezizokhomba cishe noma yisiphi isifo. Kuyoba eshibhile, ngakho-ke eminyakeni ethile wonke umuntu kule planethi uzokwazi ukuthola imithi yomhlaba wonke, cishe mahhala.
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Ukuphrinta kwe-3D: Intengo yephrinta eshibhile isuke ku-US $ 18,000 kuya ku-US $ 400 eminyakeni engu-10. Ngaleso sikhathi, yaba izikhathi ze-100 ngokushesha. Zonke izinkampani ezindala izicathulo zaqala ukunyathelisa izicathulo ku-3D. Izingxenye zezindiza okwamanje ziphrintiwe ku-3D ezikhungweni zezindiza ezikude. Isiteshini sesikhala manje sinomshicileli oqeda isidingo sezinhlamvu eziningi ababezisebenzisa esikhathini esidlule
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Ekupheleni konyaka, ama-smartphones amasha azoba namathuba okuskena ku-3D. Khona-ke ungakwazi ukuskena unyawo lwakho ku-3D uphinde uphrinte isihlangu esiphezulu endlini yakho. E-China, kakade inyatheliswe ku-3D isakhiwo samafulethi we-6. Ku-2027, i-20% yazo zonke izinto ezikhiqizwayo izophrinta ku-3D.
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Amathuba ebhizinisi: Uma ucabanga nge-niche yemakethe ofuna ukubamba iqhaza kuyo, zibuze: "esikhathini esizayo, ucabanga ukuthi sizoba nalokhu?" Uma impendulo inguyebo, ungakwenza kanjani ngokushesha? Uma ingaxhumi nefoni yakho, khohlwa umbono. Futhi noma imuphi umbono oklanyelwe ukuphumelela ekhulwini lama-20 nakanjani uyohluleka ekhulwini lama-21.
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UJobe: I-70% -80% yemisebenzi izoshabalala eminyakeni elandelayo ye-20. Kuzoba nemisebenzi eminingi emisha, kodwa namanje akucaci uma kuzoba nemisebenzi emisha okwanele ngaleso sikhathi esifushane
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Ezolimo: Kuzoba khona irobhothi lamadola ayi-100 ngokuzayo. Abalimi basemazweni asemhlabeni wesithathu bazokwazi ukuba ngabaphathi bamasimu abo esikhundleni sokusebenza nsuku zonke emasimini abo. I-Hydroponics izodinga amanzi amancane kakhulu. Inyama yenkomo yokuqala ekhiqizwa ezitsheni ze-petri isiyatholakala futhi izoba eshibhile kunaleyo ekhiqizwa izinkomo ezifanayo ngo-2018. Njengamanje, i-30% yawo wonke umhlaba wezolimo isetshenziselwa izinkomo. Cabanga uma ubungasasidingi leso sikhala. Kunezinkampani eziningana eziqalayo ezizohlinzeka ngamaprotheni ezinambuzane maduze. Aqukethe amaprotheni amaningi kunenyama. Izomakwa njengokuthi "omunye umthombo wamaprotheni" ngoba abantu abaningi basawenqaba umqondo wokudla izinambuzane.
Ukuhlaziywa kwemithombo yezitshalo nezitshalo kuzokwenziwa ngama satellites kanye nama-drones kanye nokulawulwa kwezinambuzane, ukudla okunomsoco nezifo kuzokwenziwa ngendlela eqhubekayo kusuka kwikhompyutha.
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Imfundo: kwesinye isizukulwane, amakhampasi azokwehliswa abe amalabhorethri ukuze ahlolwe futhi acwaninge futhi athuthukiswe amacala namasu, okuwumyalelo we-inthanethi kanye nenkomfa yevidiyo. Ukuhlola kuzophinde kwenziwe ukude futhi kuzothola ukuthi umuntu "uyazi" noma uyakopisha noma ubamba ngekhanda.
Wonke umuntu ngaphandle kwemfundo yobuchwepheshe noma ekhethekile uzoba yisigqila sezimali, ngaphandle kwamalungelo aphelele okuba yisakhamuzi.
Kunohlelo lokusebenza olubizwa nge-“Moodies” olungavele likutshele ukuthi ukusiphi isimo. Kuze kube ngu-2020 kuzoba nezinhlelo zokusebenza ezingasho uma uqamba amanga ngesimo sobuso bakho. Cabanga ngenkulumompikiswano yezepolitiki ekhombisa lapho bekhuluma iqiniso noma beqamba amanga.
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Ama-bitcoins azoba ukusetshenziswa okujwayelekile kulo nyaka futhi angase abe yi-reserve yezinhlamvu zemali.
Imali yephepha izoshabalala ngezizukulwane ze-2 futhi yonke into ezosebenza kuyoba yikhompyutha.
- Okwamanje, ukuphila okulinganiselwe kwandisa izinyanga ze-3 ngonyaka. Iminyaka emine eyedlule, ukuphila okuphakathi kwaba yiminyaka eyi-79, manje yiminyaka engu-80. Ukwanda ngokwayo kukhula futhi i-2036 cishe kuyoba ngonyaka owodwa wokwanda ngonyaka. Ngakho-ke singaphila isikhathi eside, mhlawumbe ngaphezu kwe-100 ...
Okuwukuphela kwento engamisa lokhu kuziphendukela kwemvelo ukubhujiswa kohlanga lwesintu yiziwula ezimbalwa ezinamandla nezingafundile.”
Amanothi avela kumuntu owenziwe ngesikhathi somhlangano we-University of the Singularity eyenziwa eMesse Berlin, eJalimane ngo-Ephreli we-2017
